Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007514 0.008468 0.009500 0.010698 0.012052 0.013535 0.015283
2026-01-11 0.006096 0.007430 0.008990 0.010951 0.013354 0.016205 0.019853
2026-01-18 0.005153 0.006630 0.008453 0.010874 0.014011 0.017949 0.023283
2026-01-25 0.004516 0.006070 0.008077 0.010865 0.014647 0.019618 0.026677
2026-02-01 0.003968 0.005540 0.007648 0.010691 0.014988 0.020866 0.029563
2026-02-08 0.003606 0.005208 0.007431 0.010754 0.015617 0.022513 0.033101
2026-02-15 0.003261 0.004857 0.007142 0.010665 0.015995 0.023803 0.036203
2026-02-22 0.003055 0.004683 0.007080 0.010890 0.016831 0.025806 0.040521
2026-03-01 0.002735 0.004302 0.006674 0.010546 0.016754 0.026403 0.042691
2026-03-08 0.002491 0.004016 0.006382 0.010344 0.016870 0.027285 0.045360
2026-03-15 0.002260 0.003730 0.006064 0.010069 0.016830 0.027898 0.047617
2026-03-22 0.002179 0.003678 0.006115 0.010397 0.017806 0.030241 0.052977
2026-03-29 0.002071 0.003576 0.006080 0.010582 0.018568 0.032306 0.058083
2026-04-05 0.001982 0.003499 0.006079 0.010828 0.019455 0.034659 0.063920
2026-04-12 0.001849 0.003331 0.005907 0.010751 0.019754 0.035988 0.067989
2026-04-19 0.001738 0.003196 0.005779 0.010742 0.020169 0.037550 0.072621
2026-04-26 0.001614 0.003025 0.005574 0.010571 0.020262 0.038515 0.076175
2026-05-03 0.001534 0.002928 0.005497 0.010633 0.020801 0.040359 0.081611
2026-05-10 0.001440 0.002799 0.005350 0.010545 0.021038 0.041632 0.085998
2026-05-17 0.001392 0.002756 0.005360 0.010767 0.021906 0.044213 0.093300
2026-05-24 0.001282 0.002580 0.005101 0.010427 0.021601 0.044399 0.095564
2026-05-31 0.001197 0.002448 0.004919 0.010228 0.021570 0.045139 0.099070
2026-06-07 0.001111 0.002307 0.004709 0.009955 0.021360 0.045485 0.101734